arthur hayes, the co-founder of bitmex, has recently targeted cryptocurrency projects that lack customers, revenue, and cash flow in a tweet. he declared the current market environment as crucial for actual financial performance, labeling it as the "fundamentals szn."
Hayes stated, "This is fundamentals szn, bitchez. You don't have customers, you don't have revenue."
This message underscores Hayes' focus on cryptocurrency projects that primarily rely on speculative trading for cash flow. He called for token buybacks and burns, where projects purchase their own tokens from the market and permanently remove them from circulation, highlighting his preference for tokens backed by real revenue.
Shifting Focus from the Federal Reserve to the Treasury
Hayes' outlook also sees him advising investors to shift their focus from the Federal Reserve's actions to the operations of the Treasury.
"The real show is at the Treasury. Ignore the Fed. It doesn't matter. Powell isn't important under a democratic regime, and he isn't important under a republican regime now. People focus on interest rates, but that's not the game. The game is liquidity, and liquidity is determined by the Treasury."
This liquidation-driven strategy has influenced Hayes' own investment plans, leading him to allocate 60%-65% of his portfolio to Bitcoin, 20% to Ethereum, and the remainder to what he calls "quality shitcoins," a term used to differentiate between worthless tokens and those with real utility and competitive flows.
This perspective contrasts sharply with his view on Bitcoin, which he predicts will reach $1 million by 2028. Attributing this prediction to the U.S.'s ongoing spending habits and capital flowing into hard assets due to liquid dollars, Hayes' forecast is closely tied to his observations on macroeconomic trends and capital flows.
The emphasis on fundamentals marks a transitional phase in the cryptocurrency market, as investors increasingly differentiate projects based on revenue, user adoption, and tokenomics. The focus on fundamentals suggests that a maturing market may see financial performance increasingly replacing pure speculation as a driver of value.
